There's a tough battle tonight at 11 PM—the US will release the September core PCE data, with market expectations at 2.9%.

Why is this worth watching? Because it's the #1 inflation indicator the Fed tracks. Once the data is out, it will directly determine the market's bets on rate cuts next year. Bitcoin is already in a sensitive spot right now—a little market movement could trigger a chain reaction.

To dig deeper: if the data comes in higher than 2.9%, the market may have to reprice expectations for “hawkish rate hikes,” putting short-term pressure on risk assets. If it’s lower, hopes for a rate cut rise, and funds may flow back in.

This is not the time to act rashly. My approach is simple—mainly observe.

Before the data is released and market sentiment settles, any early bet is just gambling on probabilities. The real opportunity comes after the results are out—watch where the money flows and which way the trend goes. It’s not too late to follow once the direction is clear. Keeping ammo on hand is always better than buying high or catching a falling knife halfway down.

Hold steady tonight—don’t rush in. Wait for the wave to pass, then see where the fish are swimming.