$BTC Tonight at 11 PM, one data point could change the direction of the year-end market.

The Fed’s most closely watched Core PCE inflation data is about to be released. Why is this so critical? Because the Fed has been aiming for a 2% inflation target for 55 months without achieving it, and this data will directly determine whether there will really be a rate cut in December. The market has already shown its stance: the US dollar has weakened recently, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, and the futures market is betting on an 87% chance of a rate cut.

Now there are two possible scenarios:

If the data meets expectations or is lower ( with Core PCE around 2.9% ), then a 25 basis point rate cut is basically locked in. What does this mean? Liquidity is coming, the Christmas rally in US stocks can continue, and mainstream cryptocurrencies could also break out of their current consolidation range.

But if the data exceeds expectations and inflation proves stubborn, then it’s a problem. The market will have to reassess rate cut expectations, and in the short term, $ETH and other mainstream assets may come under pressure, with risk-off sentiment rising.

Simply put, tonight’s data is a switch. If it turns on, capital will flow in; if not, we might have to wait a bit longer. The stock market, forex market, and crypto market are all waiting for a clear signal from the Fed.

This is a critical moment—once the PCE data is out, it’ll either trigger a liquidity-fueled rally or continue the bottoming grind. All strategies hinge on this one outcome.