At 11:00 p.m. tonight, one data point may keep global traders up all night.

The U.S. September PCE inflation report is about to be released. This indicator, regarded as the “bible” by the Federal Reserve, is at the center of attention—on one side, the U.S. stock market is struggling to hold onto historic highs, and on the other, there's the countdown pressure of next week’s rate decision meeting. The market is holding its breath.

What's even stranger is that the data is “contradictory”: ADP employment numbers are frighteningly weak, consumer confidence indices keep falling, and recession alarms are blaring. Yet, corporate earnings season has been surprisingly strong, and Black Friday’s shopping frenzy is breaking records both online and offline. So, who should we trust?

“Soft data is no longer reliable,” Nationwide strategist Mark Hackett put it bluntly. “Now, only PCE can provide the answer.” Economists’ consensus forecast is: core PCE monthly rate at 0.2%, annual rate holding at 2.8%. But the market has long learned—a forecast and reality are often two different things.

The most surreal part is this: even though inflation hasn’t fully subsided, traders are already voting with their feet—87% are betting the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week. Natixis strategist Janasiewicz even said the policymakers might “ignore” lagging data and act directly, because the real threat isn’t an inflation rebound, but signs of an impending collapse in the job market.

On the eve of the PCE data release, bulls and bears are already on edge. A surprise to the upside? The stock market could bleed. A cooldown? The rebound might be fierce. The crypto market is also waiting for this signal—after all, the liquidity valve is in the Fed’s hands.

The countdown begins. The answer comes tonight.