#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC Tonight at 11 PM, the Fed’s most important Core PCE data will be released—this is basically the final answer on whether there will be a rate cut in December.

Why is it so crucial? Because this is the main benchmark the Fed uses to target 2% inflation. It’s been above target for 55 consecutive months, and the markets can barely wait— the dollar has weakened in advance, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, and 87% of traders are betting on a rate cut. This long-awaited inflation data is the final missing piece before the Fed makes its decision.

The market is betting on two scenarios:
▪️ Data meets or is below expectations (Core PCE around 2.9%): Then a 25-basis-point rate cut is pretty much locked in. Once the liquidity expectation materializes, the year-end rally in US stocks could continue, and crypto assets may have a chance to break out of their current consolidation range.
▪️ Data surprises to the upside (inflation remains stubbornly high): Then policy expectations will have to be recalibrated, the market will turn quickly, risk-off sentiment will rise in the short term, and crypto will also come under pressure.

$ETH Tonight’s data is about much more than just market ups and downs. It will determine where global capital flows next—stocks, forex, crypto—everything depends on how the Fed reacts to this “policy signal.”

Simply put, PCE is the master switch for the year-end market: it will either turn on “liquidity mode” for a money-fueled rally, or keep markets “consolidating at the bottom” to endure the winter. Right now, all the waiting is about timing this wave of capital flows just right.