U actually dropped to 6.95?

When I woke up this morning, the group chat had exploded. Some people were saying to sell all their U, others were calling this a bottoming signal. The craziest thing is, USDT has really broken below 7 against the RMB—a situation I haven’t seen in years.

But what’s even more surreal is that ETH pumped 10% last night, and Bitcoin is holding strong at high levels. What’s going on here? U is dropping, but coins are rallying?

After checking around, I’ve pieced together two clues:

**First: The Fed Is About to Change**
Rumor has it they’re getting ready to change leadership over there, and the incoming Hassett is said to be extremely dovish. The market is already betting on a rate cut in December, with the probability surging to 90%. Next year they might even slash rates by 50 basis points in one go. If the dollar really goes down, the RMB will appreciate passively, so U’s price coming under pressure makes sense.

**Second: Big Moves Domestically Lately**
There’s been a clear crackdown on gray channels for stablecoins, forcing a lot of people to get out of U and lie low. This has brought a surge in short-term supply, naturally pushing prices down.

These two factors together have created the weird situation we’re seeing now—U is dropping, but the crypto market is on fire.

Why?

It actually makes sense: once the expectation of a depreciating dollar is confirmed, the money has to go somewhere. Stocks? Real estate? Or the crypto market? History tells us that on the eve of every big money-printing spree, Bitcoin and ETH usually catch on first.

And have you noticed? Before every bull run, U’s price always goes through a period of pressure. Veteran players are used to this rhythm—some even take the contrarian approach: buying U at a low price and waiting for the rate to bounce back to 7.3 to cash out and lock in the spread.

Newcomers are still asking “Is U going to crash?” while the veterans are already calculating “How many points can I make this time?”

So, how do you see this? Do you think U breaking below 7 is a crisis or an opportunity? Should you swap for U now or keep holding coins?

The market is never short on stories; what it lacks are people who can understand them.