Recently, some friends asked me: The stock market is clearly rising, so why doesn’t it feel like the economy is actually getting better?

Many people believe that a surging stock market represents a strong economy, but this is actually a misconception. The more frenzied the market gets, the greater the risk exposure for financial institutions—behind it all is the ever-growing pile of debt and leverage. Soaring stock prices mean higher asset valuations, surging demand for financing, and a forced expansion of the credit system. But when prices reach a certain tipping point, expected asset returns start to decline, prices gradually lose their credit support, and that's how the bull-to-bear turning point is formed.

When the stock market rises crazily, the entire financial system is forced to expand with it. Banks have to release more funds, credit scale passively balloons, and debt exposure keeps growing. This is because large institutions all operate under the same logic: liabilities don’t decrease but increase, and asset scale keeps expanding.

So, using the stock market to measure economic vitality? The standard is wrong.

Now, let’s look at the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin—its current role is more like a "risk premium buffer zone" for traditional finance. For the past two years, I’ve been saying that Bitcoin’s asset nature has shifted from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset, but not many people truly understand this. The reason is simple: most people aren’t aware that the higher traditional markets rise, the greater the risk premium becomes.

Soon, you’ll gradually understand this logic. Right now, risk exposure in traditional markets is still increasing, and the crypto market is about to enter an accelerated takeoff phase. At that time, you’ll see wave after wave of large institutions and Fortune 500 companies pouring in, using assets like BTC, ETH, and even LDO to hedge risks and maintain asset vitality.

Those big tech giants in the US stock market? They’ll all be entering one after another.