The data on Polymarket has exploded recently—the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December has shot up to 93%, while only 8% are still betting on rates staying unchanged.

This prediction platform isn’t a club for slogan-shouting economists; it’s a battlefield where real money is on the line. When global traders vote with their wallets, this kind of consensus is often more perceptive than any report. What does 93% mean? Basically, “it would be strange not to cut” at this point.

Why is the market suddenly so confident? Inflation data is indeed cooling, economic growth is starting to weaken, and the Fed’s hawkish stance has lasted so long that they need an excuse to back down. The question is, is this one-sided expectation really reliable?

Think back to previous cycles—market sentiment often flips at critical moments. Last year, some people were betting on “permanent rate hikes,” and look how that turned out. Now everyone is betting on a rate cut—could this be another frenzy in the making?

If rate cuts actually happen, a return of liquidity is inevitable. The stock market will likely pop first, and the crypto market is highly likely to follow—major coins like ETH have always been sensitive to macro trends. But don’t forget, rate cuts don’t equal a bull market; it just means the environment is a bit friendlier. The real action depends on which sector the capital flows into—will it be a DeFi revival, or will meme coins continue to suck up all the attention?

Another interesting point: traditional finance and on-chain data are becoming more entangled. In the past, when the Fed held meetings, the crypto space would only see symbolic moves; now, policy expectations directly impact on-chain asset pricing logic. This deepening linkage is both an opportunity and a risk.

So, is this 93% bet a sign of foresight or herd mentality? Is the eve of a rate cut the time to get in, or is it just a bull trap?