Bank of America is making a definitive statement this time: the Bank of Japan is highly likely to take action in December.

Their economist, Takayasu Kudo, explicitly predicts in a report that at the policy meeting on the 18th-19th, the policy rate will be raised directly from 0.5% to 0.75%. This isn’t just a random guess—corporate profits are starting to recover, spring wage negotiations show positive signs, and the pressure from yen depreciation is still there. With these factors combined, the central bank has plenty of reasons to act.

But this is just the beginning.

According to Bank of America’s projected roadmap, Japan will move into a “rate hike every six months” fixed rhythm: once in June 2026, and then again in January and July 2027. In short, the era of ultra-loose policy is coming to an end, and rate normalization is the set path.

This move could have a significant impact on the market. The yen may stop falling and rebound, Japan’s government bond yield curve will need to be redrawn, and corporate borrowing costs will definitely rise—whether the real economy can handle it remains to be seen.

The bigger issue is liquidity. In recent years, Japan has been one of the world’s sources of low-cost capital, but now it’s about to tighten the tap, and cross-border capital flows will inevitably be affected. For the crypto market, macro liquidity tightening often means risk appetite declines, so this policy shift is definitely worth watching closely.

We’ll know the outcome of the December meeting on the 18th.