From the weekly perspective, looking at Bitcoin's current trend, this wide-ranging consolidation is strikingly similar to the top structure during the bull-to-bear transition in 2021—both saw a peak followed by a pullback and then entered a sideways consolidation. Back then, there was a weekly flag pattern followed by a sharp drop; now, three candlesticks have already formed in this consolidation range. Whether it will develop into a rectangle consolidation or a flag breakout still needs further observation.

Switching to the daily chart, the first bearish candlestick appeared during the rebound, directly engulfing the previous day's bullish candlestick, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Structurally, this is clearly a bearish flag, and combined with the wide-ranging consolidation in the larger cycle, the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored. The outlook from the Bollinger Bands is also not optimistic—the price is stuck near the upper band, with no sign of an upward breakout.

The 4-hour chart makes the situation even clearer. Yesterday, the price failed to break through the Vegas channel and reversed downward under the combined pressure of the Vegas level and the TD9 indicator. Want to continue the uptrend? You must first take out the Vegas resistance. The MACD indicator is also turning, with the bullish crossover above the zero line turning into a bearish crossover, and volume shifting from bull dominance to bear dominance.

#数字货币市场洞察 At this level, there is intense long-short competition, and the technical outlook favors a defensive approach.