Recently, an interesting divergence has appeared in US employment data—the nonfarm payrolls have seen strong growth, while the unemployment rate is quietly rising. What’s even more intriguing is that although the Federal Reserve has implemented a rate cut, its statements remain decidedly hawkish, making it clear that it will continue to closely monitor inflation trends. This “cutting rates with one hand, issuing warnings with the other” approach has led to significant volatility in the crypto market, with Bitcoin pulling back 3% in a single day and other major cryptocurrencies experiencing even steeper declines.

Why are the data “at odds”? This may not be due to statistical errors, but rather a strategic choice by policymakers. The Fed currently faces a dilemma: the economy needs liquidity support, but asset bubbles must also be guarded against. So what we are seeing is a delicate balancing act—combining data releases and policy signals to both foster some expectation of easing and suppress excessive speculation. Historical experience shows that when policy is about to shift, official messaging often becomes “ambiguous” in this way.

What’s most important for ordinary investors right now? Don’t be scared into exiting by short-term drops, and don’t blindly believe claims that it’s the “perfect buying opportunity.” Remember this principle: when macro data show conflicting signals, it often means that big money is repositioning; when policy stances are unclear, waiting and observing is wiser than acting on impulse.

Rather than guessing the Fed’s next move, it’s better to focus on on-chain data—watch the flow of funds from large addresses and changes in exchange reserves. These concrete indicators are more valuable than playing policy guessing games. The market will always reward those who remain calm and think independently. If you can keep a steady mindset when others panic, and stay rational when others follow the herd, that’s the key to surviving long-term in a volatile market.