There’s been a huge development in the global financial world recently—the next Fed chair is basically locked in? All the money on prediction markets is betting on the same person. If this comes true, it’s no small matter for those of us watching liquidity.

Let’s look at the data. On Polymarket, Kevin Hassett’s probability shot up to 84%. What does that mean? It means the market is putting real money behind the idea that he’s a sure thing. As for the other candidates? Kevin Warsh is at 7%, and Chris Waller isn’t even at 3%. The White House National Economic Council director seems to have already booked that seat.

Why him? Two words: perfectly aligned. Hassett is nothing like the current chair, Powell. Powell stares at data all day—every inflation metric, employment number—practically analyzing them with a magnifying glass. Hassett is different. He believes “growth is king” and thinks high interest rates hurt the economy way more than inflation does. His thinking is cut from the same cloth as a certain former president who called Powell “Mr. Too Late” and constantly pushed for rate cuts.

Call him the chief architect of economic policy or a loyal supporter—either way, his stance is rock solid.

So what does the market think? If he really gets the job, the Fed will most likely turn more “friendly”—meaning a more aggressive rate-cutting pace and stronger easing. When liquidity loosens, risk assets are always the first to take off. Stocks, bonds, crypto—which of them doesn’t thrive on liquidity?

Of course, it’s still early days, but the market is already pricing it in. That 84% probability is right there—traders aren’t stupid; they sense a policy shift coming. In the next few months, watching every Fed move might be even more important than watching price charts.