The BOJ rate hike expectations have surged to 90%—this is no joke.

The world’s largest carry trade currency is undergoing an unprecedented upheaval. What signals are hidden behind this?

Let’s talk about the direct impact first: the old trick of borrowing yen to buy US stocks or crypto for carry trade gains is basically coming to an end. What’s more, as these arbitrage positions start to unwind on a large scale, trillions in funds will have to pull out of risk assets. Liquidity? It’s tightening at a pace you can see with the naked eye.

The transmission path is actually very clear: yen rates go up, carry positions are forced to unwind, US stocks come under selling pressure, risk-off sentiment rises, and all high-risk assets get hit. This isn’t an isolated incident in a single market—it’s a systemic liquidity restructuring.

Still hoping for some “independent rally”? Wake up. In the face of systemic risk, no one is immune. The closer you are to the epicenter, the more likely you are to be affected.

My view is straightforward:

In the short term, the pressure from tightening liquidity makes holding cash especially valuable. But in the long run, the more thoroughly the traditional system collapses, the more valuable decentralized assets like Bitcoin will become. If you believe this logic, then a crash is actually an opportunity to accumulate positions—think of it as the market handing out benefits.

To put it simply: when the old order starts to unravel, you should be thinking about how to get your ticket to the next era. Keep stacking coins or hold onto dollars for now? That’s a question you have to figure out for yourself.

One last reminder: the intensity of global deleveraging volatility will truly show you what financial-level turbulence means.