Nonfarm Data Fission Shakes Policy Foundation, Liquidity Turning Point May Reshape Crypto Market Landscape

Cracks Emerge in the US Job Market, Fed Policy Shift Enters Countdown

The just-released November nonfarm payroll data fell far short of expectations, with only 128,000 new jobs added—the lowest of the year—and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.2%. This data hit the market like a stone thrown into a calm lake, instantly shattering hopes for a “hawkish pause” by the Fed. CME interest rate futures now show the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting soaring to 87%, and a rate cut before next March is virtually consensus. US Treasury yields plunged in response, the US Dollar Index fell below the 104 mark, and global risk assets gained a temporary reprieve.

Fiscal Woes Force a Shift in Monetary Policy

More severe than the jobs data is the mounting US debt burden. US national debt has surpassed the $30 trillion mark for the first time, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion, equivalent to 4.5% of GDP. Under the pressure of this snowballing debt, maintaining high rates is self-defeating. The Fed’s “data-dependent” strategy is facing a dual dilemma: on one hand, it must curb inflation; on the other, it has to leave room for fiscal sustainability. This inherent contradiction in policy objectives makes rate cuts not just an “option” but a “necessity”—the only question is timing.

Institutional Money Takes Early Positions, On-Chain Data Reveals Clues

Smart money has already moved. BlackRock bought $67.48 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum in just one hour, and spot ETFs have set a record for 17 consecutive days of net inflows. This is not speculative buying, but classic asset allocation logic: as major global economies are expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, institutions need non-sovereign assets to hedge against fiat credit risk. Crypto assets’ low correlation with traditional markets makes them an ideal tool for portfolio diversification. As Wall Street whales begin to strategically allocate digital assets while retail investors are still debating whether it's a “scam,” the market’s narrative power has already shifted.

Market Outlook: Short-term Volatility vs. Medium-term Trends

The current market shows classic “front-running expectations” characteristics. December Bitcoin options’ max pain point sits at $65,000, indicating a gravitational pull toward this level in the short term; investors should beware of sharp volatility. However, tactical fluctuations should not obscure strategic opportunities:

1. Clear liquidity transmission path: rate-cut cycle → real rates fall → weaker dollar → capital seeks high-beta assets → crypto market benefits

2. Institutional allocation just starting: currently, global sovereign wealth funds and pensions allocate less than 0.3% to crypto assets—far below traditional safe havens like gold, leaving significant room for growth

3. Supply scarcity highlighted: with sustained ETF net inflows and the quadrennial halving cycle resonating, Bitcoin’s liquidity premium will gradually emerge

Investment Strategy: Manage Position Sizing to Navigate Uncertainty

When facing trending opportunities, position management outweighs timing. Historically, risk assets often experience a “dip then surge” pattern in the 3-6 months after the Fed’s first rate cut. Investors are advised to adopt a “core + satellite” strategy: use a long-term core position to capture the trend, and deploy a flexible position for grid trading near key support (e.g., the $60,000–$62,000 range), participating in the trend while dynamically controlling drawdown risk.

Nonfarm data has torn off the glamorous facade of the US economy, exposing dual concerns over the job market and fiscal sustainability. This is not just a monetary policy inflection point, but potentially the start of a global asset allocation paradigm shift. As cracks in the traditional financial system become more apparent, the value of crypto as a “monetary experiment” is being redefined. While short-term market swings may persist, the medium-term liquidity-driven bull narrative is beginning to take shape. This isn’t just a simple bullish catalyst, but the prologue to a structural bull market.

For investors, the question is no longer “whether to participate,” but “how to get on board.” How do you view this macro-driven rally? Is it the beginning of a new all-time high, or the last hurrah before good news is priced in? Share your thoughts and logic. #十二月行情展望 #十二月降息预测 #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌$XRP ‌