Ethereum has been repeatedly tugging back and forth around the 3000 mark—is it going to crash or take off? If you understand this article, you’ll be more confident than most people.

After years of watching the market, I’ve seen too many baffling moves. Take this recent case—at the beginning of November, when market sentiment was running high and everyone was shouting "ETH straight to 4000," a whale bought nearly 5,000 ETH in one go at the high of 3452. Probably got swept up by FOMO.

And the result? After holding through 12 days of volatility, they couldn’t take it anymore and cut their losses at 3087. That’s a loss of $365 per ETH, with a total loss approaching $1.8 million.

Even big players chase tops and get stuck? If retail investors just follow their feelings, isn’t that just giving away money?

The current situation is interesting: technically, the MACD has just formed a golden cross below the zero line, which looks like the beginning of a rebound. But at the same time, a whale is dumping to create bearish pressure, and both bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war right at the 3000 mark. This is the easiest time to make mistakes—don’t rush in, figure out the key levels first.

Upside: 3260 is the first hurdle. Last time ETH hit this level, it was pushed back down, and now there’s a lot of trapped traders there; 3350 is even tougher—without enough volume, it’s impossible to break through.

Downside: 3000 is a psychological level. If it breaks, it could trigger a chain reaction. Market sentiment is already fragile, and once this level is breached, panic selling could quickly follow.

So what should you do now? Don’t let emotions lead you. Focus on volume and the performance at key levels. Waiting patiently for clear signals is much better than trading blindly.