**Pre-market Observation on December 5: In the Era of Index Distortion, Sentiment Is the Soul of Trading**

Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained weak, while the ChiNext Index managed to hold up, but with nearly 4,000 stocks declining and trading volume continuing to shrink. What does this indicate? Most of the money just doesn’t want to move anymore.

In this market, apart from commercial aerospace and Fujian-related concepts repeatedly tugging back and forth, all that’s left are the emotional plays of short-term “monster stocks.” So stop focusing on the index—right now, for short-term trading, sentiment is far more valuable than index ups and downs. Following the sentiment of capital is the only way to survive.

Overseas markets saw slight fluctuations last night. Chinese concept stocks stopped falling, and the A50 index also edged up, showing signs of stabilizing. After several days of weakness in A-shares, there is indeed a demand for a rebound, but the current liquidity makes it hard to support multiple themes resonating together. Judging from yesterday’s session, commercial aerospace and robotics may have continuity, plus the repeatedly hyped Fujian theme. In addition, Moore Threads is about to go public—will it siphon off market funds? That also needs to be watched.

**Haixin and Haiwang Both Failed at 6-to-7 Board, the 7-Board Ceiling Remains Solid**

Haixin and Haiwang both failed at the 6-to-7 board stage, and Guosheng also didn’t dare to go up due to concerns over severe volatility—fear of the 7-board is becoming increasingly apparent among funds. The suppression at the 7-board level will likely persist in the short term.

That said, Haixin and Haiwang both breaking the streak may not be bad for short-term trading—it’s actually better than them being stuck at the front without breaking through, which would suppress sentiment. Now that they’re out, the new market leader is Gaole at 4 boards, still far from severe volatility. If Gaole continues to perform well, it will significantly boost short-term sentiment overall.

Gaole is a restructuring concept stock with three consecutive one-word limit-ups, and trading volume is getting lower. There’s almost no suspense that it will continue limit-up at the open today, which will help boost short-term sentiment. Will there be a board divergence with increased volume? Most likely. But judging from recent restructuring stocks, they’re not quickly abandoned after several limit-ups, so there may be room for speculation. However, the risk of chasing multiple consecutive limit-ups is indeed higher, so short-term relay should remain cautious.

Both three-board runners are Fujian concept stocks. Taiyang had a negative announcement about major shareholders reducing holdings after hours, and the opening auction will reflect market attitude. Although the reduction starts on the 26th, there’s still time, so it’s possible that short-term funds will still speculate. Anji, like Haixin, is a food + Fujian concept; yesterday funds completed a clear high-low switch. If the Fujian theme continues to recover, it may see ongoing capital relay and turnover. Compared to Taiyang’s one-word limit, stocks with continuous turnover seem more favored by the market. If it stays strong at the open, it has a high probability of breaking out.

**Commercial Aerospace Still Crazy, Hot Money Crowds Aren’t Leaving**

The craziest theme in the market is undoubtedly commercial aerospace. Although there aren’t many limit-up stocks, the after-hours trading list still shows hot money crowding in. With persistent optimism from these funds, it’s easy to attract more relay capital, so even if there’s divergence, the theme’s momentum is unlikely to end soon.

Longzhou, with the Fujian attribute, is clearly more favored by funds and shows signs of a second wave. Its first wave was even stronger than Hangfa, but it wasn’t popular due to consecutive limit-ups. If it’s truly strong on its return, there may be no buy point today—sentiment is peaking. But there’s a big risk with its consecutive limit-ups, given the heavy overhang from earlier positions, so without turnover, it’s not recommended to queue at the limit.

Jidian’s second board is also impressive. It competes with Longzhou but is still at a low level, so the probability they advance together is high. Unlike Longzhou, it advanced through continuous turnover, and as long as commercial aerospace stays strong, relay funds won’t be scarce. If it gaps up and hits the limit at the open, and can handle increased volume early on, that may not be a bad sign. It has the highest chance of becoming the next leader in commercial aerospace.

If there’s no entry opportunity in Longzhou or Jidian, Dahua on its first board might be the third option. It’s also a Fujian stock with a natural advantage, but it’s breaking previous highs, so if the volume doesn’t expand the next day, the risk is higher. It all depends on whether there’s enough volume at the board to support a relay.

The core of commercial aerospace is still Hangfa, which serves as the sector’s bellwether. As long as it doesn’t perform too badly, even if there is divergence, funds will focus on the leaders. This stock can be traded by buying the dips and selling the peaks based on the front runners’ performance, which may yield good results.

**Can Robotics Sustain? Junya Is Key**

Whether the robotics theme can continue is a major focus. Junya has first-mover advantage, advancing with a one-word limit. Whether it can continue limit-up is vital for the whole sector. Only if it stays strong will the sector avoid a one-day rally, and high-profile stocks will have speculative opportunities.

Longxi hit limit-up at the open; it also has a commercial aerospace concept and is a Fujian stock—covering the hottest market themes. Yesterday, even with a gap at the open, funds pushed it up, so the probability of breaking out the next day is high. But if it doesn’t open at limit, there will be heavy selling pressure, so whether it can handle turnover at high levels at the open is worth watching.

Julun is the most popular robotics stock. If the sector continues and it performs strongly at the open, buying interest will be strong. Popular stocks easily gather momentum, and its relatively low position makes it less likely for investors to get deeply trapped. So if a one-word limit appears on the leaders in robotics and Julun isn’t weak at the open, it’s worth watching closely.

**Moore Listing Effect: the Logic Behind Related Stock Speculation**

Moore’s listing has stimulated related stocks—Heertai and Dazhong are the ones to watch. Since the STAR Market has high entry requirements, some funds may guide capital to these related directions—after all, retail investors without STAR Market access account for a large proportion.

*The above content is for communication and sharing only, and does not constitute investment advice.*