2025-12-04 14:50:18

#ETH走势分析 $ETH

A few days of gains and people are already calling it a bull market? My view remains the same—we’re still in a bear market cycle. The monthly chart has already formed a high-level death cross, which means we’re likely to be stuck in a consolidation phase for at least six months to a year. So don’t think about holding long-term; once you catch a rebound at the weekly level, it’s time to exit.

Looking at historical patterns, weekly rebounds are usually triggered in two ways: either a daily chart bullish divergence drives the rebound, or after two consecutive months of sideways movement without breaking lower, an upward move starts. Which one does ETH fall into now? That’s something worth considering. The technical patterns are right there—match them up for yourself.

Record from the evening of December 4

ETH2.15%

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SmartContractPlumber

· 12-06 15:48

Getting anxious to rebound just because of a monthly death cross? I've seen this trick too many times before. Just like those contract vulnerabilities in the past, seemingly perfect patterns often hide the biggest traps.

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GasWaster

· 12-05 19:37

tbh the monthly deathlcross is def not a joke, been there before... but bruh why's everyone always talking about bounces when gas fees alone would nuke my position lmao. like yeah maybe eth pumps for a week or two but then what, i bridge it out and lose 40% to fees? nah i'm staying put on L2 til this thing actually settles. the math never checks out when you factor in actual costs 💀

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MoonRocketman

· 12-04 15:18

A dead cross on the monthly chart is just that—a dead cross. This time, you really need to build up patience. Who can endure six months to a year of grinding? The weekly chart’s rebound window hasn’t fully opened yet; you need to wait for that trigger signal, so don’t rush to jump in. On the daily chart, it’s either a bearish divergence or a sideways breakdown—one of the two. Right now, it still seems to be lacking that final push. You need to change your bottom-fishing mindset. Take profits on rebounds—don’t dream about catching the absolute bottom. The monthly chart has already given the answer; the technicals are right there, so make your own call. Grinding out a bottom for half a year? You’ll need to keep detailed records—every retreat timing could determine success or failure. If there’s no launch window, don’t mess with your positions. Wait until the trigger conditions are mature. The bear market cycle is confirmed without a doubt. If you’re greedy, you’ll end up paying tuition sooner or later.

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ForkInTheRoad

· 12-04 15:17

After just a few days of gains, people are already fantasizing about a bull market. They've really never seen the world.

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SnapshotLaborer

· 12-04 15:05

I don't even have to think about it, this is just a rebound—don't get fooled. --- A monthly death cross lasts at least half a year, how are there still people calling for a bull market? So bold. --- Wait, is ETH showing bullish divergence at the bottom now or just moving sideways? I can't figure it out. --- Sell at the rebound, I agree with this logic. Don't dream of getting rich by catching the bottom. --- It's that "I've seen through it all" attitude again, they say this every time. --- A monthly death cross at a high level is indeed a strong signal, it's a bit unsettling. --- Half a year to a year? That's too pessimistic, the market isn't that predictable. --- How do you judge a weekly rebound, just study technical patterns and figure it out yourself? No wonder you lose money. --- I've heard "sell at the rebound" so many times, the key is knowing when the rebound happens. --- Stop guessing, just wait for the data to speak.

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 12-04 15:04

After just a few days of gains, you’re already fantasizing. That’s a classic case of crypto FOMO.

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