$BTC Although expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to rise, macro data (especially non-farm payrolls) have significantly disrupted the timing of policy implementation, and it is possible that the FOMC may delay decisions based on data performance. Currently, BTC is fluctuating at high levels. Regardless of whether the meeting ultimately results in a rate cut, there is a high probability of bearish market movement in the short term:

If a rate cut is implemented, it would be a typical “sell the news” scenario, and short-term correction pressure would be prominent. However, in the long term, coupled with the policy benefits from the end of the balance sheet reduction cycle, the logic for the market to resume its upward trend remains solid. If rates remain unchanged, expectations for policy easing will be disappointed, and BTC could come under immediate pressure, with the possibility of testing lower support levels.