2025-12-04 00:21:52

Ethereum is currently at a delicate crossroads. The $3,000 level can be seen as either support or a trap.

On one hand, the Fusaka upgrade is brewing a return of the “deflationary narrative.” The core logic of EIP-7918 is straightforward: require all Layer 2 transactions to pay real fees to the mainnet and then burn ETH. Keep in mind, L2 now accounts for over 85% of all network activity, which means if the upgrade goes live, the amount of ETH burned could see a qualitative leap. For those who are bullish on Ethereum’s economic model in the long run, this is undoubtedly a major positive.

But on the other hand, the charts are telling a different story.

Technical analysts have noticed that a classic “bear flag” consolidation pattern has formed on ETH’s daily chart. This pattern typically suggests that after a brief pause, the previous downtrend could continue. Even more concerning, the $2,820-$2,830 MVRV support zone is being repeatedly tested—this is essentially the lifeline for the mid-stage bull market. If it’s lost and the lower edge of the flag is broken at the same time, then the $2,200-$2,500 area is almost certainly the next stop. The potential drop? Nearly 20%.

Meanwhile, long-term holders are selling off in large volumes. Actions by this “smart money” often speak louder than any technical indicators.

So, what’s the key from here?

Keep a close eye on two price levels:
- If ETH can hold above $3,100 and break higher, then $3,700 is the next target. Break through $3,700? The bull market could still have legs.
- But if it loses trend support at $2,850 and then falls below $2,820? The bears will fully take control, and the $2,200-$2,500 range will become the new battleground.

Put simply, Ethereum right now is like a bow pulled to its limit. The expectations from the upgrade are one thing, but market structure and selling pressure are another. The result of this tug-of-war between bulls and bears will directly decide the narrative for ETH in the next cycle.

What’s your take? Can the upgrade withstand this wave of pressure?

ETH0.03%

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PerennialLeek

· 18h ago

Smart money has already exited, what’s the point of talking about upgrades… --- If 2850 really breaks, we’ll see 2200. --- The lower edge of the flag pattern is about to be smashed, still hoping for deflation? Wake up. --- Long-term holders are dumping, that’s the real signal. --- The upgrade came too late, now it’s all about dumping. --- Where’s the promised bull market? Feels more like getting fleeced. --- Can 3100 really hold? I doubt it. --- Those who believed in deflation must regret it now. --- The market structure is already broken, no upgrade can save it.

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RetailTherapist

· 12-05 16:36

This wave of selling pressure is really something else. All the smart money is running, and no matter how good the upgrade narrative is, it can't hold up. --- 2820 really is the line between life and death—if it breaks, just wait to bottom fish. --- To be honest, the upgrade expectations have long been priced in. Looking at fundamentals now is useless. --- So many flag pattern breakdowns, feels like the market's about to teach everyone a lesson. --- Long-term holders are dumping, that's the realest signal. --- Instead of waiting for the upgrade, it's better to defend 2820 first—stop dreaming about 3700. --- Fusaka sounds good, but the market doesn't care. --- The bowstring is pulled so tight, it might just end with a dull thud. --- My gut tells me hitting bottom at 2500 might come faster than waiting for the upgrade. --- With this much selling pressure, even the deflation narrative is useless.

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 12-05 00:48

Smart money is selling, this signal stings a bit --- No matter how good the upgrade is, it has to hold the price line, otherwise it's just storytelling --- If the flag pattern breaks, you really have to get out—don’t wait until 2200 to regret it --- 85% of L2 activity—if EIP-7918 can really go live, that would be the real long-term game changer --- Everyone buying now is betting on the upgrade, but the bears clearly hold the trump card --- The 2820 line is truly crucial, I think we’ll see next week --- Tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but long-term holders selling is the scariest signal --- Feels like the market is digesting upgrade expectations—if it doesn’t hold until launch, there may be a drop

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LiquidationWatcher

· 12-04 00:48

Smart money is running; that should tell you something. --- The upgrade hype has been going on for so long, but the charts just show drop, drop, drop. I trust the charts. --- If 3100 doesn't hold, it's over. Don't wait for 3700. --- Long-term holders selling is ruthless, way more honest than candlesticks. --- Another "fully drawn bow," but hasn't the string been slack for a while now? --- Let's wait and see; getting in now just makes you the bagholder. --- Fusaka upgrade? They're already spinning stories before it even goes live. --- If 2820 breaks, I'm adding to my short position right away. --- "Smart money" is getting out, and we're still waiting for the bull market.

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CryptoNomics

· 12-04 00:42

lol the bearish flag formation has a 0.87 correlation with subsequent downside moves, but you're completely ignoring the endogenous variables affecting token velocity post-Fusaka. statistically insignificant analysis tbh

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 12-04 00:42

I trust smart money selling the most; no matter how good the upgrade is, it can’t withstand dumping. When long-term holders run, what does that mean? It means they’re scared too. This time it all depends on whether 2850 can hold. If it breaks, we’re heading straight for 2200. The upgrade expectation is indeed positive, but the market isn’t buying it. Right now, technicals are what matter.

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BuyHighSellLow

· 12-04 00:24

Smart money is already running; relying on the upgrade narrative is unreliable. Large-scale sell-offs by long-term holders are the real signal. No matter how good the deflation expectation is, it can't withstand heavy selling. Can the Fusaka upgrade really save the market? I doubt it. Once 2820 is broken, heading straight to 2200 is not a dream. To put it nicely, we’re at a crossroads; to put it bluntly, it’s liquidation time. All technical indicators are screaming bearish, and you’re still thinking about a bull market? Uh... Let’s see if we can hold 3100; only a breakout gives hope. But smart money has already left—what about us?

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FlatTax

· 12-04 00:23

All the smart money is leaving; no matter how good the upgrade narrative sounds, it's useless. --- Flags are basically just fake-outs, honestly. Wait for the drop, then talk about good news. --- If 2820 breaks, it's straight down to 2200. There's really no suspense this time. --- Fusaka upgrade? All just hype in the face of a sell-off, seriously. --- Feels like the bulls are about to get crushed this time. No matter how good the hardware is, it can't withstand this selling pressure. --- When long-term holders start leaving, that's too obvious a signal. I need to think about it too. --- Only if 3100 holds does it have a chance; right now it looks shaky. --- Ugh, it's the "upgrade is a positive catalyst" story again, but the market isn't buying it.

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