Altcoin Top Judgment: Demystifying the divergence between the number of holders and the currency price

2023-05-29 08:32:53

For altcoins, the judgment of the top is extremely important. It is often very depressing to get rich quickly and plummet quickly.

In the past two days of research, I found that the divergence between the number of holders and the currency price is a good omen at the top.

Taking LIDO as an example, it has risen from 0.9 to 3.3. Then at the top, in the red box in the figure, there is a serious divergence between the holder and the currency price. Specifically, the number of holders has soared (retail FOMO), but the currency price has fallen sharply. Then think about it, a large number of retail investors are buying, why is the currency price falling? There is only one truth, Gouzhuang is shipping.

The same thing happened to PEPE. On May 5, the price of PEPE experienced a big correction. However, the number of holders has increased significantly, indicating that there are also a small number of large dog owners who are shipping. Look at the decline in the number of PEPE holders in the next few days. It means that Gouzhuang and some retail investors are selling, and there are no new retail investors coming in to take the order, so PEPE is a huge jump.

The same happened to LADYS. In the days before May 16, Holder increased rapidly, but the currency price was falling. It is also typical for retail investors fomo to enter the market and Gouzhuang to ship.

Pay attention when analyzing: it must be a relatively large increase in holder awareness, and then the currency price falls, which can be used as a signal of the top. The holder grows naturally under normal circumstances, so slow growth should not be used.

Finally, I recommend a few websites where you can view holder changes

Watchers (can only view the tokens it contains) search for the corresponding token name or project name.

2、Tokenterminal

Glassnode (you can only view the tokens it contains)

The advantage is: tokens have many data dimensions, and the disadvantage is that the tokens are supported at least and need to be paid.

4、Dune

Data platforms, data panels created by others themselves, all kinds of data are available. The disadvantage is that you need to search and find it yourself.

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