Gate News reports that on March 10, according to PolyBeats monitoring, an account that profited over $450,000 in the February 28 Iran conflict-related market on Polymarket invested a total of $13,000 to buy options related to the end of the US-Iran tripartite conflict. The account invested $6,700 in the option “Iran and Israel/US conflict will end before March 15,” with an opening price of 6.2¢, and the current probability of this event is 9%. The account address is 0xde7…5f4b.
In the past 24 hours, U.S. President Trump has frequently hinted in public statements that military actions against Iran have nearly achieved their goals, repeatedly using phrases like “the war is over” and “victory has been achieved,” indicating a conclusion.
Market opinion suggests that the U.S. government is trying to declare victory and quickly de-escalate the situation, largely out of concern over a sharp rise in international oil prices. Previously, escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Strait of Hormuz blockade crisis caused crude oil prices to surge significantly. The high oil prices and the resulting domestic inflationary pressures directly contradict the core economic goals of the Trump administration, prompting it to show a clear willingness to cease fighting and seek a ceasefire at this stage.
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