Grayscale predicts a new Bitcoin high in 2026, legendary trader Peter Brandt: Next bull market target is $250,000

As the global crypto market undergoes significant correction, asset management giant Grayscale has released a major report, asserting that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in 2026 and may break the traditional four-year cycle pattern. This prediction stands in sharp contrast to critics like Jacob King and Peter Schiff, who claim that the current bear market is “the final cycle before Bitcoin’s demise.” Meanwhile, legendary trader Peter Brandt, from a technical analysis perspective, points out that although Bitcoin’s four-year cycle curve has been broken, if the price drops sharply to $50,000, the next bull run could push it as high as $250,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s price has surpassed $90,000, and the market is fiercely debating between macro pressures and long-term conviction.

Grayscale Report: Breaking Out of the Four-Year Cycle, New Highs by Next Year

Amid the panic caused by the recent plunge, Grayscale released a distinctly bullish report, aiming to inject confidence into the market. In the report published Monday, Grayscale’s analyst team put forward a key viewpoint: Bitcoin is unlikely to simply follow the previously well-known “four-year cycle” model. The so-called four-year cycle refers to Bitcoin’s price peaking around each halving event, followed by a deep correction.

Grayscale analysts wrote: “Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle theory will be proven wrong, and Bitcoin prices could reach new highs as soon as next year.” This bold prediction directly challenges the mainstream narrative. To support their view, the report reviewed historical data, noting that since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced more than 50 corrections of over 10%, with an average drop of about 30%. The latest decline is not abnormal in the historical context; rather, it falls within the range of “historical norm.” Grayscale concludes that this adjustment should not be over-interpreted as a reversal of the long-term trend, but rather seen as a healthy shakeout in the bull market process.

This optimistic outlook aligns with strategists like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who recently told CNBC that Bitcoin could reach an all-time high by the end of January. Grayscale’s report essentially provides institutional endorsement for such bullish views, attempting to shift market focus from short-term panic back to long-term fundamental narratives.

Bears Assemble: From the “Final Cycle” to Business Model Doubts

In stark contrast to Grayscale’s optimism are increasingly sharp warnings from long-term critics. Noted Bitcoin critic Jacob King stated bluntly on social media: “BTC will never surpass its all-time high again.” He claims that the past years of greed and delusion have peaked, reality will set in, and insists the current bear market is “the final cycle before Bitcoin’s demise.” While his remarks are consistently met with fierce backlash from Bitcoin supporters—some even using AI tools to compile his history of erroneous bull market predictions—the bearish voices nonetheless reflect deep-seated doubts among some market participants.

Even harsher criticism is directed at Bitcoin-related public companies. Gold advocate and long-time Bitcoin bear Peter Schiff targeted the “digital asset treasury” model represented by strategy companies. He claims the company’s founder, Michael Saylor, is selling shares to meet obligations, and asserts: “Today marks the beginning of the end for MSTR. The stock has collapsed, its business model is a scam, and Saylor is Wall Street’s biggest fraud.” Such attacks are not just about Bitcoin’s price, but fundamentally question the sustainability of business models derived from Bitcoin as an investable asset.

Comparison of Core Bull and Bear Viewpoints and Data

Grayscale (Bullish) View: Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high in 2026; recent corrections are historical norms (average pullback 30%).

Critics (Bearish) View: This is the “final cycle before Bitcoin’s demise”; related business models (such as strategy companies) are unsustainable.

Peter Brandt (Technical Analysis) View: The four-year cycle parabola is broken; if it drops sharply to $50,000, the next bull market could reach $200,000 to $250,000.

Current Bitcoin Status: Price around $86,000, market cap below $2 trillion, market dominance about 58%.

Recent Market Pressures: Bank of Japan turns hawkish, yen weakens, and inflation fears trigger market turmoil.

Technical Analysis Perspective: Cycle Decay and the $250,000 “Possibility”

Amid the war of words between bulls and bears, legendary chart analyst Peter Brandt provides a cool, impactful technical perspective based purely on price action. He points out that Bitcoin’s classic “four-year cycle parabola” has been unequivocally broken. This is an important technical signal, usually suggesting that the previous uptrend rhythm and pattern may have changed, and bear market conditions could be prolonged.

Brandt outlined a dramatic scenario on social media: “Agree or not, you have to face it. If the current drop takes the price down to $50,000, then the next bull market cycle should push it to $200,000 to $250,000.” While this view appears contradictory, it actually reveals a deep logic in technical analysis: an extreme washout (a drop to $50,000 means a drawdown of over 40% from the high) would clear out leverage and weak hands, laying the foundation for a healthier and stronger bull market. He is not simply bearish, but describes a potential path of “falling into the abyss before soaring to the peak.”

However, Brandt also admits that given Bitcoin’s current relative strength, the likelihood of dropping to $50,000 (about 42% down from current prices) is “very low”—such a scenario would mean extremely bearish market conditions. Some on-chain signals, such as a 15-year-old, $4.33 million Bitcoin miner reward being moved, are often interpreted as long-term holders taking action, sometimes a sign of bottoming. Currently, the declining Average Directional Index (ADX) also indicates that the strength of the downtrend is waning, and the market may be searching for a short-term bottom.

Background: What Exactly Is Bitcoin’s “Four-Year Cycle” Theory?

For many new investors, understanding the core of this debate—the “four-year cycle” theory—is crucial. The theory originates from Bitcoin’s issuance mechanism: roughly every four years, the Bitcoin network’s block reward is halved, meaning the rate of new Bitcoin supply suddenly drops. After each of the three historical halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin’s price saw epic bull markets with exponential growth within the following one to one and a half years.

The underlying logic: assuming demand is constant or rising, the sudden halving of supply growth breaks the previous supply-demand balance, pushing prices higher. Each bull market sets a new all-time high, then retreats over 75% from the peak, forming a complete “bubble boom and bust” cycle. Grayscale’s report directly challenges this core point: they argue that with widespread institutional adoption, spot ETFs providing new demand channels, and shifting macro environments, this mechanical, single-event-based cycle model may no longer be valid.

Market Status: A Tug-of-War Between Macro Headwinds and Conviction

Setting aside distant predictions, the current market is indeed facing real macro pressures. Recent Bitcoin sell-offs have coincided with global market weakness, dropping about 5% in a matter of hours to below $86,000, wiping out over $200 billion in market cap. Analysts generally attribute this to concerns over the Bank of Japan’s policy shift. CCN analyst Victor Orlanrewaju noted: “Simply put, the weak yen, rising inflation, and the Bank of Japan’s sudden hawkish turn have shaken the market.” However, as the Federal Reserve loosens policy and Wall Street giants turn bullish, Bitcoin has surged past $90,000 today.

Bitcoin’s market dominance remains at a high 58% in the current bear market, showing that even under pressure, capital still regards Bitcoin as the “ballast” of the crypto sector. At the same time, discussions about Bitcoin and related companies (such as strategy companies and Tether) are soaring on social platforms, indicating that community attention has not faded with the price drop. This combination of “high attention and low price” is often a hallmark of markets at key inflection points.

On one side are bold predictions from asset management giants based on new narratives; on the other, the piercing warnings of critics; while technical analysis masters draw a thrilling path of breakdown and resurgence. Bitcoin is at a cognitive crossroads: the old cycle patterns seem broken, yet a new valuation framework has not yet fully formed. Whether it’s Grayscale’s “new high next year” or Brandt’s “$50K abyss and $250K peak,” they all point to the same core: the market’s volatility and imagination have never truly dried up with any deep correction. This debate over Bitcoin’s fate may not have winners or losers—only ever-evolving cognitive frameworks and the market’s own final answer.