BofA and JPMorgan present two growth scenarios for America 2026, how will it impact Bitcoin?

Bank of America (BofA) forecasts that the real GDP growth of America will reach 2.4% in 2026, driven by five different favorable factors. Meanwhile, JPMorgan highlights various risks that could put pressure on the economy during the same period.

BofA lists the supporting factors for growth: the OBBBA fiscal package contributes an additional half a point through consumption and investment, the rate cuts from the Fed in the second half of the year, a more growth-friendly trade policy, sustained high AI investment, and the base effect helping the measured GDP to increase.

BofA's forecast also shows: overall PCE remains at 2.6%, core PCE at 2.8%, the unemployment rate slightly rises to 4.3%, inflation is “soft” with mild persistence, and the Fed is in a phase of partial easing.

For stock investors, this data serves as a “signal” to maintain long-term positions. For Bitcoin, the important question is whether the 2.4% growth is accompanied by a decrease in real yields and an expansion of liquidity — factors that have previously driven BTC price surges — or whether tariff levels and budget deficit pressures will keep real yields high, limiting the momentum for non-yielding assets.

JPMorgan: risks that could derail BofA's forecast

The S&P 500 index has increased by about 14% in 2025 due to AI expectations, but 2026 is forecasted to see many points of tension. Revisiting the tax levels during President Donald Trump's administration is expected to generate about 350 billion USD in revenue each year, directly related to the forecasted GDP deficit of 6.2%.

The US-China tensions and China's pressure on strategic minerals ( rare earth ) could create stagflation supply shock risks. The 2026 midterm elections could flip the House of Representatives ( if the Democratic Party wins ), increasing the risk of policy gridlock. Initial pressures from the labor market and living costs could also suppress consumption, even if GDP is positive.

In summary, both BofA and JPMorgan see a modest growth outlook, inflation exceeding targets, and the Fed easing somewhat; however, BofA focuses on favorable factors, while JPMorgan emphasizes the fragility of the scenario.

Real yield: the determining factor for Bitcoin's direction

What is important with Bitcoin is not whether GDP is growing by 2.0% or 2.4%, but where the real yield ( after inflation) is.

Research from S&P Global shows that since 2017, Bitcoin has a clear negative correlation with real yields, increasing significantly when loose policies and expanded liquidity are in place. Analysis from 21Shares states that in the post-ETF period, BTC trades like a macro asset, with prices reflecting ETF flows and liquidity more than just relying on on-chain data.

According to Binance's explanation: Bitcoin “thrives when liquidity is abundant and real yields are low or negative,” as investors are willing to pay a premium for long-term assets that do not generate interest.

Currently, real yields are at a high level, complicating the bullish scenario for Bitcoin. The 2 and 10-year TIPS yields in 2025 are nearing a 15-year peak. As real yields rise, cash and government bonds become more attractive, directly competing with BTC.

Crypto analysts believe that a decrease in real yields is a prerequisite for Bitcoin to rise again: when real yields decrease, capital flows into growth and high-risk assets. Policy forecasts indicate that interest rates will be around 3% by the end of 2026, corresponding to slightly positive real yields if inflation aligns with BofA's forecasts. This is looser than the peak interest rate hikes of 2022-23 but does not reach the negative levels seen in 2020.

ETF Flow: Amplification Mechanism

Funds like BlackRock's IBIT have become the main channel for Bitcoin demand in America, with fluctuations of over 1 billion USD in a single day appearing in both inflows and outflows. As real yields decrease and the USD weakens, capital flows return to risk, and ETFs amplify this momentum. Conversely, when yields rise due to tariffs or deficit pressures, capital flows reverse sharply.

Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with a “risk-on” sentiment. If 2026 sees easing as BofA expects, the ETF inflows will support the upward momentum. If risks arise according to JPMorgan and real yields remain high, these channels will amplify the downward trend.

Risks from JPMorgan and the Impact on Real Yields

The risks from tariffs, China, and politics are not theoretical. UBS Bank of Switzerland warns that tariffs could keep inflation high until the first half of 2026, with core PCE possibly reaching 3.2% and above 2% by 2027. If nominal yields remain high while inflation decreases slowly, real yields will still be high, creating an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin: cash and short-term bonds become more attractive.

Uncertainty about China's tariffs and mineral power could create supply shocks, combined with American midterm politics, all contributing to higher real yields while growth is only 2.4%. In this context, Bitcoin competes directly with bonds instead of benefiting.

Condition Scenario

• If the BofA scenario occurs: GDP at 2.4%, OBBBA spending increases, AI investment is high, inflation slightly decreases but remains above target, the Fed gradually cuts interest rates, then Bitcoin is likely to benefit. Real yields decrease, financial conditions loosen, capital flows from bonds to risk assets, ETFs amplify the upward trend.
• If the JPMorgan scenario prevails: tariffs keep inflation persistent, Supreme Court instability, US-China tensions, mid-term politics creating concerns, then even if the GDP is 2.4% on paper, the real yield is still high, the opportunity cost of holding BTC is high, and ETF volatility. Bitcoin could decrease in price even when the economy is strong.

In summary, the 2.4% GDP figure from America is not enough to assess the Bitcoin trend. The determining factor is whether that growth is accompanied by declining real yields and expanded liquidity — favorable conditions for BTC — or persistent inflation, deficit pressure, and high real yields — making Bitcoin compete with bonds.

BofA provides favorable factors, while JPMorgan points out how they could be stalled. With Bitcoin, the difference between the two scenarios is not in GDP but in TIPS yields and ETF flows, which is the “hinge” that determines the trend.

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