Trump never expected a major power to be so tough: announcing to the world, the Persian brothers can rest assured!
Trump has always hoped that major powers would not interfere in Middle Eastern issues, but clearly, he can't stop them. In the past 48 hours, two major pieces of news have emerged from the Middle East: The first is that a major power announced to the world that the Persian brothers can rest assured.
Here's what happened: Recently, the U.S. suddenly sanctioned five Chinese companies, placing them on the sanctions list. The reason for the sanctions was that the U.S. believed they had oil trade dealings with Iran. The U.S. occasionally sanctions Chinese companies, but Trump didn't expect that this time, a major power would be so tough! On May 2nd, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice: According to the relevant provisions of the "Measures for Blocking the Improper Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Laws and Measures," these companies shall not be recognized, enforced, or complied with U.S. sanctions measures against the five Chinese companies! Three "not allowed," almost directly challenging the U.S.
Wow, this notice clearly is a direct challenge to the U.S.: if you don't let us buy oil, we will buy it anyway! Now, the Persian brothers can rest assured. With a major power backing them, the U.S. naval blockade of Iran is ineffective! Such a situation is undoubtedly unexpected by Trump: after all, previously, major powers had been relatively cautious and low-profile on Middle Eastern issues. Trump originally thought: as long as U.S. pressure is tough enough, major powers wouldn't care much about Iran! But the reality now tells Trump that major powers are completely unafraid of U.S. pressure on Middle Eastern issues.
Next, Trump has to consider: if major powers are so tough, should the U.S. escalate further, sanction more Chinese companies, or directly follow his previous statement of "imposing a 50% tariff on all countries purchasing Iranian oil"? If Trump dares to take this step, a full-scale trade war will immediately reignite! However, given Trump's current situation in the Middle East, he probably doesn't have the courage to escalate again.
After all, the U.S. currently has no strength to fight a real hot war with Iran while simultaneously engaging in a no-smoke but equally deadly trade war with major powers. The second piece of news is that the U.S. Ford aircraft carrier has really left the Middle East! That means there are no longer three U.S. aircraft carriers dominating the Middle East, but only two. From this sign, the possibility of the U.S. launching a major attack on Iran seems low now.
Iran's biggest threat now is actually Israel, since Netanyahu still wants to fight. He has finally persuaded a U.S. president to allow U.S. troops to get involved directly, and he doesn't want to waste this great opportunity. More and more realities tell us that Trump can no longer fully control this war. His next choices will determine his personal fate and will also impact the future national destiny of the U.S. for decades to come.
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