#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Cryptocurrencies generally get cut in half—where exactly are they positioned right now?
In the April cryptocurrency market, it is in a spot that makes people both anxious and conflicted. Bitcoin has fallen from its historical high of $126,080 in October 2025 down to around $70,000, a pullback of nearly 47%. Altcoins have been even more brutal—Ethereum is down to about $2,200, Ripple to $1.33, Solana to $82, and the GMCI30 index tracking the global top 30 cryptocurrencies is still hovering at a low level. When facing such a “halving” style market, the question investors care about most is: has the bottom been reached? Is this the chance to get in, or should you keep waiting?
01 Divergence of Bulls and Bears: Where exactly is the market?
The market’s current contradictory signals can be summarized in one sentence—institutions are buying, retail investors are panicking, technicals are signaling a turn, and macro factors are putting pressure on the market.
On the bullish side, major players like Goldman Sachs are backing the move. In an early-April research report, Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro clearly stated that the crypto market “may have already touched the cycle bottom.” His core argument is this: after four straight months of net outflows, in March, $1.32 billion in institutional funds flowed back into Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking a shift from speculative selling to long-term capital accumulation. Yaro defines the $68,000 to $71,000 range as Bitcoin’s support zone and believes leverage liquidations have basically been completed.
At the same time, on-chain data is also releasing signals of a bottom. The MVRV Z-Score is compressing—a metric historically highly correlated with major cycle lows; the 720-day trend indicator for Bitcoin (TBBI) has also fallen below 20, corresponding to the end of a historic long downtrend. The number of Bitcoins held by accumulation addresses has surged from 2 million at the start of 2024 to 4.37 million as of April 7, showing long-term holders steadily accumulating while the market panics.
Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to a two-year low, and institutions keep “picking up” during the panic.
But bearish voices also cannot be ignored. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price structure is still incomplete, and the market still needs to go through another round of downside shakeout; he expects the price must drop below $66,000 to clear out long liquidity, and only then could an effective upswing form.
CryptoQuant analyst oro_crypto also warned that the recent rebound from $66,000 to $72,000 was driven entirely by futures leverage and did not receive spot buying support, making it “water without a source.” Some analysts, based on historical cycle patterns, also believe it is too early. Crypto analyst @CryptoTice_ said that, according to the pattern of the past four halving cycles, the time when a true bottom forms is usually between 800 and 950 days after the halving—corresponding to Q4 2026, not the current stage. He also emphasized that a true bottom requires a complete collapse of market confidence and participants giving up and exiting, while the market still has people actively buying and expecting a short-term rebound.
02 Macro Environment: A Hawkish Fed and Geopolitical Pressure in a Double Bind
The macro environment in 2026 is not friendly to cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate remains in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, and inflation expectations are still above the 2% target level. March CPI rose 3.3% year over year; although core CPI is below the expected 2.7%, market expectations for rate cuts are still being postponed—on Polymarket, the probability of “no rate cuts in 2026” has jumped from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%. Even more challenging is that CME interest rate swaps show an 87.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged in April, but rate-hike expectations have risen to 12.4%, double the level at the beginning of the month.
A new Fed paper even found that since 2021, Bitcoin and Ethereum have increasingly tracked macro signals such as U.S. inflation and employment data, showing a high degree of correlation with the performance of risk assets. After the launch of ETFs, the correlation between Bitcoin and Fed policy has reversed, and institutional investors are now pricing interest-rate changes 6 to 12 months in advance.
On the geopolitical front, after 21 hours in Islamabad, Iran-U.S. talks broke down. The U.S. announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude surged to $98 per barrel. Within 24 hours after the news broke, Bitcoin fell by about 3% to around $70,600. For cryptocurrencies, the impact of geopolitical conflicts can no longer be ignored—it's no longer a “digital gold”-style safe haven, but rather an emotional indicator tightly bound to risk assets. As BTC Markets analysts noted, current geopolitical news is dominating the crypto market’s short-term direction.
03 Technical Outlook: The Cup-and-Handle Pattern Is Taking Shape, but Momentum Is in Doubt
Technically, Bitcoin’s daily timeframe is forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern. The neckline is in the $73,151 to $73,240 range. If the price can achieve a daily close breakout, the pattern’s measured-move target is about 11%, potentially pointing to around $81,720. However, there are technical concerns as well. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a “hidden bearish divergence”—between March 4 and April 9, Bitcoin formed lower highs while the RSI formed higher highs at the same time, suggesting the original downtrend may not yet be over, and the current rebound may still need further consolidation.
On key support levels, the current price is testing the support strength of the 50-day exponential moving average at around $70,700. Overhead resistance is in the $73,750 to $74,400 range. If price breaks below the 50-day EMA, it could see another pullback toward around $60,000. A negative funding rate (-6%) in the futures market and extremely high short positioning increase the probability of a short squeeze—once the price breaks through the resistance zone, the closing of large numbers of short positions could fuel a fast rebound.
04 Liquidity / Flows: Large-Scale Stablecoin Returns, and ETF Flows Hit a Three-Month High
The most worth-watching signals recently come from the flows side. From April 6 to 12, the market saw $2.56 billion in stablecoin inflows that week, and both centralized exchange spot and perpetual contract trading volumes increased month over month. On-chain data shows that funds are gradually flowing back from stablecoin “safe havens” to the Bitcoin market. Institutional inflows are also a positive sign. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $786 million in net inflows last week, the strongest single week since February; on April 13, there was even a one-day net inflow of $471 million, setting the largest single-day inflow record in about three months. During this period, Strategy bought 13,927 Bitcoins, worth about $1 billion. The rising share of institutional holdings and the fact that CME Bitcoin futures open interest first surpassed bn both indicate that the crypto market is shifting from a retail-driven speculative environment to a structural pattern driven by institutions.
05 Institutional Viewpoints: Bulls Are Optimistic, but Cautious Skeptics Have Questions
When reviewing recent institutional and analyst views, the bullish camp includes: Goldman Sachs believes the market may have already touched the cycle bottom; Bernstein maintains a Bitcoin target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026; and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee even estimates Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000.
But cautionary voices are also reminding investors: Bitf warns that April will be a critical month for whether rate expectations can be maintained; and multiple institutional analyses point out that resolving the Iran-U.S. conflict and whether Bitcoin can return to historical highs are necessary conditions to kick off the next bull run. ZFX Shanhai Securities’ analysis is more moderate, suggesting Bitcoin is currently in a low-volatility consolidation and base-building phase; short-term sentiment is neutral to slightly weak, but there is potential rebound momentum. Multiple viewpoints converge on the same judgment: the current location has characteristics of a bottom zone, but the final path depends on whether macro variables can improve meaningfully. As André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, put it, Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio is “significantly tilted in favor,” but this requires geopolitical and macro conditions to align.
Conclusion: How should we deal with the current bottom-range game? Going back to the original question: after cryptocurrencies have been cut in half, has the bottom stabilized?
Objectively speaking, signals supporting the formation of a bottom are increasing—ongoing institutional inflows, accelerated on-chain accumulation, stablecoin fund reflows, and gradually improving technical patterns. But the uncertainties are also just as prominent—an unclear macro rate-cut path, unresolved geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient rebound momentum in the short term. For ordinary investors, the following variables are worth ongoing attention:
- Whether ETF fund inflows can continue—this is the most direct readout of institutional sentiment;
- How the Iran-U.S. situation evolves—geopolitical conflict is currently the biggest short-term disruptive variable; the Fed’s statements at the end-of-April FOMC meeting—interest-rate decisions will directly affect risk asset valuations; whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000—this is the key technical signal that strength may turn positive.
As many analysts have said, the April 2026 crypto market is in a “test of discipline” phase. The market’s bottom is never a single price point, but a range; confirming the bottom is not based on any single indicator, but on the resonance effect of multiple signals.
