AxelAdlerJr

IEEPA tariffs ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court. Refund mechanism remains unclear. Markets may now reprice legal and fiscal uncertainty - watch VIX.

Capital has been leaving the network for two months straight. Holders are sitting on losing positions. No new buyers in sight.
Breaking it down → new ☕️ Adler AM 👇

Two old friends met.

🔴 While everyone was asleep - someone hit the button.
$2.3B taker sell. 1,247 BTC liquidated.
Monday already set the tone.
What's next - inside → ☕️ Morning Brief #111 👇

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has been red since December 13, except for two days - January 5 and January 14. 🩸

Today’s market regime may fully depend on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s tariff authority under the IEEPA. Whether the justices uphold the power to impose aggressive tariffs could determine the direction of trading as early as today.

1133 days without a Sales Pressure signal. The last time the market entered this regime was in January 2023 - during the final phase of the bear cycle.
What is changing now - covered in ☕️ Adler AM #110 👇

Institutions aren't buying. They're selling. −11,042 BTC left ETFs in 7 days. Exchanges are flooded with supply.
Full breakdown in ☕️ Morning Brief 109 👇

In November 2022, 78% of all Bitcoin was held by Long-Term Holders. That was the bottom.
Today that number is 49%. What does this mean for the current market?
SQL of the Week #015: HODL Waves - age structure of supply, SQL for BigQuery and interpretation of the current state.
🔗

Today could be a strong green trading day if progress in the U.S.-Iran talks continues.

VIX and MOVE are rising. This is a toxic combination for the markets, increasing the probability of whipsaws and sharp moves.

New Weekly Engine update + Trader’s Evidence is out.
Deleveraging is over - or just a pause before the next wave?
Full report below👇

Bitcoin Basis (%) - 7D SMA has returned to the neutral zone as the spot-futures premium collapsed. This indicates that demand for long exposure via derivatives has weakened, and the market is no longer pricing in an aggressive risk-on scenario. Typically, this signals a decrease in risk appetite, deleveraging, and a shift into wait-and-see mode.
Bulls need more spot demand, as derivatives are currently not pushing the market higher.