Before the Vitenser halving, the reason for the worsening bearish trend... 'Supply halving vs intensified selling' which way will it go

Vitenser(TAO) is still unable to break free from the bearish structure despite the approaching halving. As of Monday, the price is $292.40, up 11.93% from last week, but the market remains stagnant below $300, indicating that short-term sentiment is still deteriorating.

The halving itself is a positive signal. With the reduction from 1 TAO per block to 0.5 TAO, the daily new issuance drops from 7,200 to 3,600, a 50% decrease. Theoretically, this supply reduction increases scarcity and favors long-term value. However, the market temperature in the spot market is different from expectations.

Signals from the Derivatives Market: Traders are Managing Risks

Vitenser futures open interest(OI) has recently decreased by 1.18% in the past 24 hours, falling to around $210.8 million. This indicates not only a lack of new entries but also a reduction in existing positions. It suggests traders are viewing the halving more as a risk signal than an opportunity.

A more notable indicator is the sudden change in the funding rate. It plummeted from an initial long premium of around 0.0060% to -0.0022%. This means the market structure has shifted in favor of short positions. In the short term, the market is leaning more toward “hedging and selling” rather than “bullish bets.”

Technical Breakdown Signal: Triangle Pattern Break Below and Stepwise Decline Scenario

On the 4-hour chart, Vitenser broke downward through the symmetrical triangle support trendline. The breakdown of this trendline connecting the lows of early December confirms a short-term bearish technical outlook.

The current rebound is interpreted as a retest of the broken support line. This area is near $291, where the 50-period exponential moving average(50EMA) is located. If the price drops again from this level:

• First correction target: S1 pivot point at $265
• If further decline occurs: S2 pivot point at $250
• Technical interim support: $286 on the 4-hour chart

Momentum indicators on the daily chart also confirm bearish pressure. RSI remains below the neutral 50 level at 42, and both MACD and the signal line are trending downward into negative territory, indicating increasing selling pressure.

Bullish Scenario Also Possible but ‘High Entry Barriers’

It’s not entirely bearish. If Vitenser can close back above $291(50EMA), the short-term rebound target could be the R1 pivot point at $305.

However, this zone overlaps with previous retracement sell-offs and technical resistance. Without clear momentum, a simple technical rebound could quickly turn into renewed selling pressure.

The Next Key Watch Point Is

Halving is a long-term supply positive, but short-term market sentiment remains cautious. Signals such as decreasing open interest, inverted funding rates, and breakdowns of technical patterns all point toward a “wait-and-see” mode. For Vitenser investors, it’s crucial to watch whether the price can rebound to $305 or if it will continue to adjust downward toward the $250 range.