Bitcoin and Gold War

The logic of Bitcoin and gold is different.

Under normal circumstances, Bitcoin is a speculative asset; its rise requires market liquidity overflow. Now, there are probably few people who still believe Bitcoin can replace currency. Everyone has seen clearly that the only potential replacement for currency might be stablecoins, whose stability comes from being backed 1:1 by fiat currency. Bitcoin is more like a famous artist’s calligraphy or painting—has consensus and is limited in supply.

Gold, under normal circumstances, is a precious metal priced in USD. When the dollar rises, gold falls; when the dollar falls, gold rises. But when the international environment deteriorates and mutual trust in currencies erodes, gold becomes an international currency. Currently, the logic of heavy metals reverts to strategic reserve-level hard currency. Its price movements are no longer directly related to the dollar, though they may still be somewhat influenced by US control.

At present, the dollar liquidity crisis is imminent. The Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates, and there are no signs of improvement yet. Bitcoin naturally cannot rise; it needs to wait for the economy to recover.

If the economy improves, international conflicts will decrease, and gold might drop.

The worst-case scenario is an economic crisis, where gold will experience a “golden pit,” but Bitcoin will perform poorly throughout the crisis.