The U.S. government shutdown has finally ended, and many expected a market rebound. But what happened? The market took a nosedive instead.

Bitcoin plunged over 3% that day, and Ethereum fared even worse, dropping more than 4.5%. The historical pattern of “shutdown ends = price rally” completely failed this time.

Let’s start with the background: this shutdown lasted 43 days, setting a new record. The core issue? The two parties were deadlocked over the border budget and immigration benefits. The Democrats’ proposal for “$200 billion in medical benefits for illegal immigrants over ten years” was flatly rejected by the Republicans—after all, that money would come out of taxpayers’ pockets.

In the end, Trump signed a temporary funding bill, but it’s just a stopgap. It’s valid until mid-March, essentially planting a risk that “another shutdown may happen in two months.”

Why did the crypto market drop after the shutdown ended?

**First, the economic damage was worse than expected.** Over 43 days, 800,000 federal employees were either furloughed or working without pay. JPMorgan estimated this directly led to an $11 billion loss in U.S. GDP, dragging quarterly growth down by 0.2 percentage points. With the economic recovery slowing, risk-off sentiment increased.

The market isn’t stupid. A temporary fix doesn’t solve the root problem, and the same situation could play out again in two months. Uncertainty hasn’t been eliminated—it’s actually clearer now—so investors chose to pull out early.

This is reality: when good news is realized, it’s often a signal that risks are about to begin.