When all the bad news falls silent, the market instead begins to stir.

Every cycle follows this same pattern—the thing people worry about most is always this: "Will the good news, once realized, turn into bad news?" This concern has never been absent.

And in the time window from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the U.S. monetary policy, trade situation, employment data, and inflation structure are forming a subtle intersection: The good news may not arrive that quickly, but the bad news? It might really be mostly out already.

The problem is, what the market fears most isn't the bad news itself, but "not being able to see clearly." So what's the current situation? The boundaries of the bad news are narrowing, and while the good news hasn't materialized yet, the probability is clearly rising. So we are standing in a very special position—not the start of a bull market, but a stage that can be understood as the "liquidity vacuum beginning to ease."

Next, I'll break down this macro logic and explain why right now isn't the time when all the good news has been priced in, but rather when all the bad news has already played out.

**— Macro Framework: Why is it possible that all the bad news has already been priced in?**

You might ask: Isn't the December rate cut the moment when all the good news has been priced in?

My view is quite the opposite: From a macro perspective, the bad news was most likely released in advance during October and November. (Note, the end of bad news doesn't mean an immediate surge; it just means "there's not enough momentum to keep falling.")

The entire logic can be broken down into six layers:

**The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet, and the easing cycle has officially begun**
**Commercial banks are facing tight funds → Motivation to cut rates is increasing**
**Weakening employment data → Resistance to rate cuts is decreasing**
**Trade war is cooling off, global uncertainty is declining**
**Yen rate hike has long been priced in ( the market has already digested it in advance )**
**Trump enters the midterm election year → He doesn't want major macro disruptions**

The most crucial point is: There's hardly any new bad news to be found now.