2025-12-05 10:20:53

The biggest black swan to watch in December? Japan's potential interest rate hike. Looking at historical data, a policy shift of this magnitude usually sees BTC pull back by 25,000 points. ETH is even more volatile, with swings of 800 to 1,200 points not uncommon.

But don’t rush to open positions yet. On the day the news breaks, things are usually calm. The real crash window? About a week later. The market needs time to digest, and then emotions get unleashed all at once—that’s when the real waterfall happens.

Right now, it’s an awkward spot—both long and short positions are tough for short-term traders, and holding a long-term short is also painful. My plan is to wait for the Fed meeting on December 10th. After seeing their rate cut move, I’ll look to short on any rally. The odds will be much clearer then.

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ETH2.8%

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BlockchainDecoder

· 17h ago

According to research, there is indeed a significant time lag in the delayed effects of macro shocks such as Japan's interest rate hikes—this is strikingly similar to the mechanism of market sentiment transmission discussed by Kindleberger in "Manias, Panics, and Crashes." Data shows that historically, similar policy shifts often trigger real on-chain volatility only about a week later. Notably, this cycle precisely corresponds to the process of cognitive lag convergence among market participants. However, I must say, the current position is indeed awkward; from a technical perspective, both longs and shorts are easily squeezed in the short term. All things considered, it would be more prudent to wait until the Fed makes its move before making any arrangements.

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quietly_staking

· 18h ago

Wait, can Japan's rate hike really cause such a big drop? I think that's a bit exaggerated... Honestly, it's tough right now—both sides are stuck and it's uncomfortable. Instead of making wild guesses, maybe it's better to wait until the Fed drama is over before making a move.

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WinterWarmthCat

· 12-05 10:50

Japan is indeed an uncertainty, but to be honest, the real action is a week later. I agree with this logic. For now, I'm just lying flat and waiting for the Fed to make a decision on the 10th before making a move. --- A pullback to 25,000 sounds scary, but whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen. Anyway, I choose to stay on the sidelines. --- I'm not that pessimistic about this round of rate hikes by Japan; the key still depends on what the Fed says. It's definitely hard to trade in the short term. --- Wait, is the Fed really going to keep cutting rates? Feels like market expectations are shifting again. --- Shorting on rallies sounds good, but the high point might not be as high as you think—that's the catch. --- Calling Japan's rate hike a black swan is a bit of an exaggeration. The real killer will still be dollar liquidity. --- The waterfall a week later makes sense, but the problem is that no one can time it perfectly—hindsight is always 20/20. --- I'm also waiting for the 10th. Right now, this is really not a good spot to make random moves. Better to wait and see. --- Talking about market digestion time is very experienced, but what if things don't play out as expected this time? That would be awkward.

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MemecoinTrader

· 12-05 10:43

ngl the real alpha here is timing the *timing*... everyone's gonna fomo the dip, but the cascade happens week 2. sentiment lag = free money if you actually wait lol

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SandwichTrader

· 12-05 10:40

Wait, can Japan raising interest rates really cause such a big drop? I think your data might be a bit conservative; the reaction last year was even more intense... But anyway, the December 10th Fed meeting is definitely a key point. I'm also waiting for that signal. The problem is, who dares to go all in right now? Even holding a short position makes my hands tired. Is the real action a week later? Then I'll just watch for now, don't want to get caught.

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PumpBeforeRug

· 12-05 10:26

This rate hike by Japan is indeed fierce; the historical data speaks for itself. However, I still have my reservations—last time there was a reversal of this magnitude, the drop wasn’t this severe. Wait, is the real impact coming a week later? Then those holding short positions now will have to tough it out. The main event is the Fed’s meeting on December 10; it’s still too early to place bets now.

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PoolJumper

· 12-05 10:23

We definitely need to keep an eye on this round of rate hikes in Japan, but I think we still need to wait a bit longer—don’t rush. The real show time is a week from now; getting in now is just asking for trouble. Wait until after the Fed meeting on the 10th, then it makes sense to set up short positions. This position is really awkward; both longs and shorts are getting squeezed. Historical data is there for a reason—a pullback to 25,000 points is no joke. We need to respect the market.

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RugPullSurvivor

· 12-05 10:22

This round of rate hikes in Japan is indeed easy to fall into traps; on the day of the news, it's often a fake drop and a real rally. Is the real bloodbath coming a week later? Somehow I feel like it's not that simple this time, especially since the Fed hasn't made a move yet. Wait, a 25,000-point pullback? That sounds pretty scary, but will history really repeat itself? Hard to say. Staying out of trades is the right call; it's definitely tough to pick a direction at this stage. I'm not touching anything before the Fed on the 10th. I'll decide whether to play after seeing what happens. I'm not here to make quick money—surviving is more important than anything. Will there be an early plunge this week? Feels like the market senses things way faster than the officials. Feels like we're about to get cut again. Historical data is ultimately just history. Shorting on rallies sounds good, but "on rallies" is always the hardest part.

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