The Federal Reserve has just finished this meeting, no rate cuts to think about, at least not in the short term, the door is still closed.

On the early morning of April 30th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause this year.

Will there be rate cuts this year? Judging by the assessments of various institutions, it’s very uncertain, but not completely dead yet. The “dot plot” from March shows that officials expect only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, around September to October. But the problem is, that dot plot was drawn before the Middle East situation worsened significantly. Now oil prices have risen, the Iran situation has caused turbulence in the Strait of Hormuz, and WTI crude oil has surged to $106.88 per barrel. Plus, the lagging effects of previous tariff policies are still being released, and US inflation remains sticky, with core PCE expected to stay around 3.2%, increasingly distant from the Fed’s 2% target.

What are the necessary conditions for a rate cut? Powell clearly stated at the press conference. First, energy prices need to fall back and tariff pressures need to ease before discussing a cut. Currently, none of these conditions are met.

So, if you want to wait for a rate cut? Be patient and wait a little longer. Until oil prices drop and core inflation turns around, these signals are not clear, a rate cut might just be a hopeful wish written in the dot plot.

Finally, if the Fed does not restart rate cuts, don’t expect a strong upward market. The words “bull market,” whoever mentions them, will be beaten down. $BTC #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧