The Fed has just enacted a 25 basis point rate cut, but you might be mistaken—this isn’t necessarily the starting gun for the crypto market.

At first glance, the news looks positive: lower interest rates, improved liquidity expectations. But the turning point is hidden in the details. Powell’s speech in the early morning is the real moment of tone-setting, and the market is nervously waiting to see if he’ll suddenly hit the brakes. The reason is simple: inflation is still stuck at 3%, and economic data hasn’t crashed. This rate cut looks more like policy inertia than a true signal of easing. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the short-term market could very likely play out the classic “good news turns bad” scenario.

But the story isn’t that simple.

An internal report from Bank of America reveals a key insight: December is just the prologue, and January next year may be the main event. The market is using expectations to corner the Fed—weak data will reinforce expectations for rate cuts, while strong data means inflation pressure is easing, ironically giving the green light for rate cuts. This “no matter what, easing is coming” logic is quietly fermenting.

Let’s dig into three layers of logic:

First, policy is shifting from “Fed-led” to “market-forced.” When expectations start to outpace policy, the liquidity gates will be pried open sooner or later.

Second, history doesn’t lie. In 2019, when policy shifted; 2020, when liquidity flooded the market; 2023, when ETFs were approved—each time a liquidity cycle started, high-beta assets were the first to explode. BTC, ETH, SOL—these assets never lack reasons for capital to chase them.

Third, volatility is just another name for opportunity. The market may experience violent swings in the next six months, but it’s precisely in this uncertainty that smart money is building long-term positions, while the cautious are waiting for a deep enough pullback to enter.

To put it bluntly, the Fed’s baton is being taken away by the market. The shift from “the central bank calls the shots” to “the market drags things forward” itself means the liquidity balance is tilting. Are you ready to catch the next wave?